Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Reply to the discussion by Karen Johannesson on “Rare earth element geochemistry of scleractinian coral skeleton during meteoric diagenesis: a sequence through neomorphism of aragonite to calcite” by Webb et al., Sedimentology, 56, 1433-1463

Webb et al. (2009) described a late Pleistocenecoral sample wherein the diagenetic stabilization of original coral aragonite to meteoric calcite was halted more or less mid-way through the process, allowing direct comparison of pre-diagenetic and post-diagenetic microstructure and trace element distributions. Those authors found that the rare earth elements (REEs) were relatively stable during meteoric diagenesis, unlike divalent cations such as Sr,and it was thus concluded that original, in this case marine, REE distributions potentially could be preserved through the meteoric carbonate stabilization process that must have affected many, if not most, ancient limestones. Although this was not the case in the analysed sample, they noted that where such diagenesis took place in laterally transported groundwater, trace elements derived from that groundwater could be incorporated into diagenetic calcite, thus altering the initial REE distribution (Banner et al., 1988). Hence, the paper was concerned with the diagenetic behaviour of REEs in a groundwater-dominated karst system. The comment offered by Johannesson (2011) does not question those research results, but rather, seeks to clarify an interpretation made by Webb et al. (2009) of an earlier paper, Johannesson et al. (2006).

Discriminating stromatolite formation modes using rare earth element geochemistry: Trapping and binding versus in situ precipitation of stromatolites from the Neoproterozoic Bitter Springs Formation, Northern Territory, Australia

Stromatolites consist primarily of trapped and bound ambient sediment and/or authigenic mineral precipitates, but discrimination of the two constituents is difficult where stromatolites have a fine texture. We used laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry to measure trace element (rare earth element – REE, Y and Th) concentrations in both stromatolites (domical and branched) and closely associated particulate carbonate sediment in interspaces (spaces between columns or branches) from bioherms within the Neoproterozoic Bitter Springs Formation, central Australia. Our high resolution sampling allows discrimination of shale-normalised REE patterns between carbonate in stromatolites and immediately adjacent, fine-grained ambient particulate carbonate sediment from interspaces. Whereas all samples show similar negative La and Ce anomalies, positive Gd anomalies and chondritic Y/Ho ratios, the stromatolites and non-stromatolite sediment are distinguishable on the basis of consistently elevated light REEs (LREEs) in the stromatolitic laminae and relatively depleted LREEs in the particulate sediment samples. Additionally, concentrations of the lithophile element Th are higher in ambient sediment samples than in stromatolites, consistent with accumulation of some fine siliciclastic detrital material in the ambient sediment but a near absence in the stromatolites. These findings are consistent with the stromatolites consisting dominantly of in situ carbonate precipitates rather than trapped and bound ambient sediment. Hence, high resolution trace element (REE + Y, Th) geochemistry can discriminate fine-grained carbonates in these stromatolites from coeval non-stromatolitic carbonate sediment and demonstrates that the sampled stromatolites formed primarily from in situ precipitation, presumably within microbial mats/biofilms, rather than by trapping and binding of ambient sediment. Identification of the source of fine carbonate in stromatolites is significant, because if it is not too heavily contaminated by trapped ambient sediment, it may contain geochemical biosignatures and/or direct evidence of the local water chemistry in which the precipitates formed.

First steps towards modeling a multi-scale Earth system

Recent advances in computational geodynamics are applied to explore the link between Earth’s heat, its chemistry and its mechanical behavior. Computational thermal-mechanical solutions are now allowing us to understand Earth patterns by solving the basic physics of heat transfer. This approach is currently used to solve basic convection patterns of terrestrial planets. Applying the same methodology to smaller scales delivers promising similarities between observed and predicted structures which are often the site of mineral deposits. The new approach involves a fully coupled solution to the energy, momentum and continuity equations of the system at all scales, allowing the prediction of fractures, shear zones and other typical geological patterns out of a randomly perturbed initial state. The results of this approach are linking a global geodynamic mechanical framework over regional-scale mineral deposits down to the underlying micro-scale processes. Ongoing work includes the challenge of incorporating chemistry into the formulation.

Multiscale coupling and multiphysics approaches in earth sciences : theory

Measuring Earth material behaviour on time scales of millions of years transcends our current capability in the laboratory. We review an alternative path considering multiscale and multiphysics approaches with quantitative structure-property relationships. This approach allows a sound basis to incorporate physical principles such as chemistry, thermodynamics, diffusion and geometry-energy relations into simulations and data assimilation on the vast range of length and time scales encountered in the Earth. We identify key length scales for Earth systems processes and find a substantial scale separation between chemical, hydrous and thermal diffusion. We propose that this allows a simplified two-scale analysis where the outputs from the micro-scale model can be used as inputs for meso-scale simulations, which then in turn becomes the micro-model for the next scale up. We present two fundamental theoretical approaches to link the scales through asymptotic homogenisation from a macroscopic thermodynamic view and percolation renormalisation from a microscopic, statistical mechanics view.

Entropic bounds for multi-scale and multi-physics coupling in earth sciences

The ability to understand and predict how thermal, hydrological,mechanical and chemical (THMC) processes interact is fundamental to many research initiatives and industrial applications. We present (1) a new Thermal– Hydrological–Mechanical–Chemical (THMC) coupling formulation, based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics; (2) show how THMC feedback is incorporated in the thermodynamic approach; (3) suggest a unifying thermodynamic framework for multi-scaling; and (4) formulate a new rationale for assessing upper and lower bounds of dissipation for THMC processes. The technique is based on deducing time and length scales suitable for separating processes using a macroscopic finite time thermodynamic approach. We show that if the time and length scales are suitably chosen, the calculation of entropic bounds can be used to describe three different types of material and process uncertainties: geometric uncertainties,stemming from the microstructure; process uncertainty, stemming from the correct derivation of the constitutive behavior; and uncertainties in time evolution, stemming from the path dependence of the time integration of the irreversible entropy production. Although the approach is specifically formulated here for THMC coupling we suggest that it has a much broader applicability. In a general sense it consists of finding the entropic bounds of the dissipation defined by the product of thermodynamic force times thermodynamic flux which in material sciences corresponds to generalized stress and generalized strain rates, respectively.

Multiscale coupling and multiphysics approaches in earth sciences : applications

Geoscientists are confronted with the challenge of assessing nonlinear phenomena that result from multiphysics coupling across multiple scales from the quantum level to the scale of the earth and from femtoseconds to the 4.5 Ga of history of our planet. We neglect in this review electromagnetic modelling of the processes in the Earth’s core, and focus on four types of couplings that underpin fundamental instabilities in the Earth. These are thermal (T), hydraulic (H), mechanical (M) and chemical (C) processes which are driven and controlled by the transfer of heat to the Earth’s surface. Instabilities appear as faults, folds, compaction bands, shear/fault zones, plate boundaries and convective patterns. Convective patterns emerge from buoyancy overcoming viscous drag at a critical Rayleigh number. All other processes emerge from non-conservative thermodynamic forces with a critical critical dissipative source term, which can be characterised by the modified Gruntfest number Gr. These dissipative processes reach a quasi-steady state when, at maximum dissipation, THMC diffusion (Fourier, Darcy, Biot, Fick) balance the source term. The emerging steady state dissipative patterns are defined by the respective diffusion length scales. These length scales provide a fundamental thermodynamic yardstick for measuring instabilities in the Earth. The implementation of a fully coupled THMC multiscale theoretical framework into an applied workflow is still in its early stages. This is largely owing to the four fundamentally different lengths of the THMC diffusion yardsticks spanning micro-metre to tens of kilometres compounded by the additional necessity to consider microstructure information in the formulation of enriched continua for THMC feedback simulations (i.e., micro-structure enriched continuum formulation). Another challenge is to consider the important factor time which implies that the geomaterial often is very far away from initial yield and flowing on a time scale that cannot be accessed in the laboratory. This leads to the requirement of adopting a thermodynamic framework in conjunction with flow theories of plasticity. This framework allows, unlike consistency plasticity, the description of both solid mechanical and fluid dynamic instabilities. In the applications we show the similarity of THMC feedback patterns across scales such as brittle and ductile folds and faults. A particular interesting case is discussed in detail, where out of the fluid dynamic solution, ductile compaction bands appear which are akin and can be confused with their brittle siblings. The main difference is that they require the factor time and also a much lower driving forces to emerge. These low stress solutions cannot be obtained on short laboratory time scales and they are therefore much more likely to appear in nature than in the laboratory. We finish with a multiscale description of a seminal structure in the Swiss Alps, the Glarus thrust, which puzzled geologists for more than 100 years. Along the Glarus thrust, a km-scale package of rocks (nappe) has been pushed 40 km over its footwall as a solid rock body. The thrust itself is a m-wide ductile shear zone, while in turn the centre of the thrust shows a mm-cm wide central slip zone experiencing periodic extreme deformation akin to a stick-slip event. The m-wide creeping zone is consistent with the THM feedback length scale of solid mechanics, while the ultralocalised central slip zones is most likely a fluid dynamic instability.

Challenges in Earth sciences: the 21st century

The 21st century poses many challenges for global sustainability. Among them, most importantly, the human race will encounter scarcity of raw materials and conventional energy resources. And, India may have to take the brunt of these problems as it is going to be the most populated region of the world with concomitant increase in energy demand and requirement of other resources. India will be the testing ground for introducing newer ways of green technology and innovative principles of resource management and utilization. With the vagaries of potential climate change gathering clouds in the background, Earth sciences will have a special and predominant role in guiding the society in prioritizing our resource discovery, utilization and their consumption and the upkeep of environment. On the fundamental level, Earth sciences are going through a most exciting phase of development as a born-again science. Technological breakthroughs including the satellite-based observations augur well for gaining new insights into Earth processes. A set of exciting fundamental problems that are globally identified will set the stage for an exhilarating period of new discoveries. Improvements in numerical and computer-based techniques will assist in modelling of Earth processes to unprecedented levels. India will have to take special effort in improving the existing experimentation facilities in the Earth science departments of the country, and also the general level of Earth science education to meet the global standards. This article presents an Earth science vision for the 21st century in an Indian context.

Science and technology : 47 video, film, and sound/slide programs for earth sciences, computer sciences, civil engineering, and general science classes.

Shipping list no.: 88-100-P.

Introduction to Special issue on the Symposium on the Application of Neural Networks to the Earth Sciences

Papers in this issue of Natural Resources Research are from the “Symposium on the Application of Neural Networks to the Earth Sciences,” held 20–21 August 2002 at NASA Moffet Field, Mountain View, California. The Symposium represents the Seventh International Symposium on Mineral Exploration (ISME-02). It was sponsored by the Mining and Materials Processing Institute of Japan (MMIJ), the US Geological Survey, the Circum-Pacific Council, and NASA. The ISME symposia have been held every two years in order to bring together scientists actively working on diverse quantitative methods applied to the earth sciences. Although the title, International Symposium on Mineral Exploration, suggests exclusive focus on mineral exploration, interests and presentations always have been wide-ranging—talks presented at this symposium are no exception.